Memory costs gut phone sales: IDC says 22% drop, Omdia says 20%

The price of a phone is going up and the number of phones on the shelf is going down. Omdia counts 254.7 million smartphones shipped worldwide in the third quarter of 2026, down 20% from a year earlier and the lowest third quarter since 2013.¹² IDC, running its own tracker, lands a little lower at 255.3 million units and a 22% fall, which it calls the steepest year-on-year drop of any quarter it has measured.³

The new part is the cause. IDC says memory costs have climbed roughly 350% since last year and are still rising, though the pace has eased to a low double-digit sequential increase in Q3, compared with 50% to 100% in earlier quarters.³ Omdia points to rising prices, cautious distributors and retailers wary of stocking ahead of the holidays.²

At the checkout, here is what that means. Omdia says brands are adjusting RAM and storage configurations and trimming model lineups to protect margins, so the phone you remember may come with less, or not exist.¹ IDC’s advice for anyone who cannot wait is to buy in the holiday quarter, when it expects promotions and discounts to be at their most attractive.³ That is a forecast about promotions, not a price guarantee.

The brand breakdown is lopsided. Samsung shipped 57.8 million units, down 5%, helped by its Galaxy A series while rival Android makers struggled with memory supply and higher prices.² Apple shipped 56.5 million per Omdia, flat on the year, riding iPhone 17 demand and channel stocking ahead of expected price increases.² IDC has Apple at 57.3 million and down 4%, so the two firms disagree on whether Apple grew or slipped; they agree it held up far better than the field.³

The rest took the hit. Xiaomi shipped 30.7 million, down 29%, after falling 20% in China and 28% in India.² Oppo, counting realme and OnePlus, shipped 23.4 million, down 39%, and vivo 19.3 million, down 33%.² Both kept raising prices in response to component costs.²

Apple’s own calendar adds a wrinkle. In September it introduced the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and its first foldable, the iPhone Duo, but pushed the base iPhone 18 to 2027.² Omdia reads that as stretching the iPhone 17’s sales life while pointing new demand at premium models this holiday season.²

The outlook is not cheerful. Omdia expects a further 12% decline this year and more falling in 2027, at a slower pace.¹ IDC sees growth constrained through 2027, with any recovery pushed to 2028 at the earliest, and warns that vendors who raised production plans could build up inventory if demand stays weak.³

Asterisk count: three. One, configurations may be trimmed, so a familiar model name is not a familiar spec sheet.¹ Two, holiday discounts are IDC’s expectation, and promotional by nature.³ Three, the outlook beyond this year is a forecast from two firms that already differ on the size of the drop.²³ The biggest is the first.

Our read: The two firms disagree on the exact decline, but both describe the same squeeze: costly components, brands choosing margins over volume, and buyers paying more. The makers with premium models and scale, Samsung and Apple, lost far less than those leaning on cheaper phones. If you are shopping, check the specs before the sticker. Earlier coverage covers the Omdia headline: Smartphone shipments fall 20% in 3Q26.

Who this is for: anyone planning a phone purchase this winter, or an upgrade they were hoping to cheap out on.

Footnotes

1. GSMArena, “Omdia: global smartphone shipments declined 20 percent YoY in Q3 2026”. Retrieved October 30, 2026. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

2. Light Reading, “Global smartphone shipments fell 20% in 3Q26, the lowest third-quarter total since 2013 – Omdia”. Retrieved October 30, 2026. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷ ↩⁸ ↩⁹ ↩¹⁰

3. IDC, “Global Smartphone Shipments Drop Record High of 22% in Q3 2026 as the Memory Crisis Hits Hard, According to IDC”. Retrieved October 30, 2026. ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷